Full text: ARCH+ : Studienhefte für architekturbezogene Umweltforschung und -planung (1968, Jg. 1, H. 1-4)

1. 
"Most government staff analysts already appreciate the 
value of integrated future-oriented analysis, yet their 
focus is usually centred too much on current decisions to 
Dermit systematic exploration of the future..." 
2, 
"The non-profit organisations which were created to aid 
the Department of Defense probably come closest to mee- 
ting the specifications for the suggested need, However, 
in practice their potential propensity to move in this 
direction is limited for several reasons their continuing 
obligations for the Department of Defense, derivatively 
their military orientation. .." a 
3, 
"As for profit-making enterprises, only a few have the 
required multi-disciplinary breadth. Moreover, they 
find it difficult to overcome public doubt that analyses 
by a profit-making organisation are totally free from 
ulterior considerations." 
(All three quotations from "Prospectus for an Institute of 
the Future", 2nd version, November 1966.) 
4. 
"The problem is to redirect our energies and all techno- 
logy,which is at our service, toward renewed human ends- 
ends which are not given as was survival among scarcity, 
but are now in need of beeing invented." 
(H. Osbekhan in "Technology and Man’s Future, Santa 
Monica, 1966.) 
5, 
"Within the past two years, there have been created in 
the United States and elsewhere a number of research 
and planning projects intended to focus on the future. 
Most of these projects conceive such research and plan- 
ning as the province of a relatively small group of ex- 
perts, who are able to spend a great deal of time pro- 
jecting trends and imagining alternatives .Few of them 
address the issue of involving large numbers of the 
citizenry in thinking about the future." 
(A,.Waskow: Involvement of the Public in serious 
+houaht about the Future. ..'", Washington 1966.) 
6. 
"Tasks for international organisations related to techno- 
logical forecasting have been grouped under ten types. 
Only half of these have received any attention, and few 
organisations have become active in this area, Only 
three organisations (CECA, EURATOM and ICAO) were 
Found to be capable of valuable in-house technological 
forecasting." 
{E, Jantsch in "Technological Forecasting in Perspect- 
ive, OECD, Paris 1966.) 
b. Tasks for a new organisation 
These judgments by some of the most knowledgeable 
people in the field point out the opportunities open for 
the "latecomers", These "beginners" could establish 
institutions, which would transcend the limits and con- 
straints of earlier organisations. 
Here lies an enormous opportunity for the Council of 
Europe, It seems to cut out for leadership in this field 
for a number of reasons: 
20 
Ve 
As an international organisation, which is less concerned 
with day-to-day decisions than other internationalı agen- 
cies, the Council of Europe could pay more attention to 
much needed anticipations of long range needs and the 
Formulation of long range goals, 
2. 
Being above narrow economic and national interests the 
Couneil will be highly trusted in its forecasting activi- 
ties, 
3, 
Whereas the overwhelming majority of forecasting acti- 
vities at present concentrated in the fields of economics 
technology and military strategy the Council of Europe 
with its broad spectrum of activities could and should 
direct its attention especially towards the neglected en- 
deavours of social, legal and cultural forecasting. This 
activity might in the long run help to subordinate in- 
dustrial and military planning to the more important 
"supreme social goals" of mankind. 
4, 
The Couneil of Europe could provide an important 
countervailing force against the recognised danger, 
that the new insights about the future and the planning 
decisions based upon them might become the preroga- 
tive of small "technocratic elites", As an organisation 
with a strong parliamentarian background it seems pre- 
destined to counteract the trend to ever stronger exe- 
cutive power based in large part on a monopoly on 
“foreknowledae", 
5. 
Whereas most of our present development follows the 
lead of the emerging economic and technological possi- 
bilities the Council of Europe might be the ideal insti- 
tution to instigate a never-ending investigation and de- 
bate about the ends and purposes of civilised life, Such 
a "modern Aeropagus", a "Council of Sages" looking at 
the whole rather than the details, at the horizon rather 
than at immediate events, has been proposed indepen- 
dently by some of the most eminent European thinkers 
like Ernst Bloch and Arnold Toynbee. 
In such a way the growing knowledge about the future 
might be augmented by that "implicit knowledge" of a 
hiaher sometimes visionary dearee called WISDOM, 
III. The functions of a European look-out institution 
a. Providing the larger picture 
The choice of the kind of people, who should run a 
European Look-Out Institution, is of more than usual 
importance, Though every one of them should be well 
versed in a special field it will be even more required 
that he should be a "straddler" (riding several fields) 
or even better a "generalist". 
In the United States proposals have been circulated to 
found an "Institute for the Future" starting with a staff 
of 65 persons (about 50 per cent of them researchers) 
and progressing to 160 (second year), 240 (third year), 
320 (fourth year), 400 (fifth year). While this build-up 
sounds rather modest for American customs, where some 
industrial and military "Think Factories" dedicated to 
ARCH + 1(1968)H1
	        

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