ARCH+: Zeitschrift für Architektur und Urbanismus: ARCH+ : Studienhefte für architekturbezogene Umweltforschung und -planung

ARCH+ : Studienhefte für architekturbezogene Umweltforschung und -planung (1968, Jg. 1, H. 1-4)

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Zeitschrift

Persistenter Identifier:: 1571051867188

Titel:: ARCH+: Zeitschrift für Architektur und Urbanismus

Erscheinungsort:: Aachen

Erscheinungsverlauf:: 1.1968-

Signatur:: Archiv IGMA; Universität Stuttgart, Institut für Grundlagen moderner Architektur und Entwerfen

Strukturtyp:: Zeitschrift

Sammlung:: Zeitschriften

Lizenz:: http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Band

Persistenter Identifier:: 1571051867188_1968

Titel:: ARCH+ : Studienhefte für architekturbezogene Umweltforschung und -planung

Jahrgang/Band:: 1968, Jg. 1, H. 1-4

Erscheinungsjahr:: 1968

Sprache:: deutsch

Strukturtyp:: Band

Standort:: Universität Stuttgart, Institut für Grundlagen moderner Architektur und Entwerfen

Lizenz:: http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Sammlung:: Zeitschriften

Ausgabe

Titel:: Heft 1: Struktur- und Optimierungsmodelle

Strukturtyp:: Ausgabe

Artikel

Titel:: Outline of a European Look-out institution

Autor:: Jungk, Robert

Strukturtyp:: Artikel

Robert Jungk Outline of a European look-out institution COUNCIL OF EUROPE CONSEIL DE L EUROPE Strasbourg, 10 aout 1967 AS/Inf. (67) 6 Or; Engl: CONSULTATIVE ASSEMBLY ACTION TAKEN ON RESOLUTION 302 Memorandum submitted by Mr. Robert Jungk, Consultant Expert This memorandum has been prepared by Mr. Robert Jungk, at the request of the Cultural and Scientific Committee, with a view to exploring the possibilities of following up Resolution 302. I, Is a "Look-Out Institution" necessary? This first provisional study outlines a EUROPEAN LOOK-OUT INSTITUTION devoted to the study of possible, desirable and undesirable futures, The need for such an institution, which might enlarge the horizon of the executive as well as the legislative branches of government and thus help them in their decisions, has been felt only in recent years, It has been brought on by the unprecedented acceleration of change, which has become one of the main characteristics of our age, and even more by the sudden jump of incisive, even shattering power inherent in modern technology, making it imperative for human society to gauge and control the new forces,. Fortunately the ability to forecast and anticipate future developments has been considerably improved in recent years, The ever increasing stream of fresh data informing man not only about the present state of the world, but also about the impact of his actions is one of the least acknowledged and most hopeful post-war developments Combined with the growing capacity to collect, corre- late and interopret this continuous and enormous amount of information within a useful time limit the effort of making educated guesses about coming crises or oppor- tunities has become a serious and worthwile activity. Spurred on by necessity and opportunity an increasing number of "researchers into the future" have started to develop a large number of new more sophisticated methods destined to help man in "looking ahead", There is no doubt that this new effort (it might be too early to call it a "science") has first germed in the mind of Europeans, Thinkers like H.G. Wells, Gaston Ber- ger, D. Gabor, B. de Jouvenel, F. Baade, J, Tinber- gen, J. Fourastig&, L. Armand, F, Polak etc, are among the "founding fathers" of the new discipline, But their ideas found their first practical application in the Uni- ted States, There the development of serious forecasting activities started over two decades ago, when a refugee from Europe, the eminent physicist, Th. von Karman, initiated in 1944 a committee called to look "Beyond the Horizon" of military aeronautics, After the end of World War Il an increasing number of strategic agencies and industrial enterprises turned to "technological forecast- ing" and these efforts came to fruition in our decade, It is conceivable and even probable that a serious "fore- casting gap" may be the deeper reason for the much dis- cussed "technological gap" separating the United States and Europe, It is therefore high time that not only European industrial concerns, but also the. national and international institutions of Europe devote more atten- tion to the forecasting of long range possibilities, danaers and opportunities. 11, An opportunity for the Council of Europe a, Limitations of existing arganisations A late starter has not only disadvantages but also distinci advantages, The newcomer can profit from the experien- ces, the mistakes or the omissions of the pioneers, Recent studies like "Technological Forecasting in Per- spective" by E, Jantsch and two prospectuses of a knowledgeable group of American "future researchers " proposing the establishment of an "Institute of the Future" have described the shortcomings and limitations of the existing organisations in the field, as well as the tasks waiting for them, They point out: ARCH + 1(1968)H1

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